Includes bibliographical references and index.

Machine generated contents note: pt. I The Setting -- ch. One Perception and the Level of Analysis Problem -- Do Perceptions Matter? -- The International Environment -- Compulsion in Extreme Circumstances? -- Domestic Determinants -- The Bureaucracy -- Perceptions, Reality, and a Two-Step Model -- ch. Two External Stimuli, Internal Processes, and Intentions -- Introduction -- External versus Internal Sources of Behavior -- Intentions -- Inaccurate Predictions about One's Own Behavior -- ch. Three Deterrence, the Spiral Model, and Intentions of the Adversary -- Two Views of International Relations and the Cold War -- Deterrence -- The Spiral Model -- Psychological Dynamics -- Self-Fulfilling Prophecies and Problems with Incrementalism -- Self-Defeating Power -- Prescriptions -- Universal Generalizations? -- Evidence against the Spiral Model -- Evidence against Deterrence -- Deterrence and World War II; Spiral Model and World War I --